Ok, now for the moment you have all been waiting for, The St. Valentine's Day Masterpiece, The Fantasy Man's 8 Step Overall Master Plan.  I will go step-by-step into my process of preparing for the 2007 season and lasting competitively throughout the season.  To start, everyone needs to have a goal.  My goal is to win cash!!!  That is the only reason I play fantasy baseball, besides the fact that I love it!  I also want to win leagues for bragging rights with friends and as a fantasy expert and website entrepreneur.  So I guess you can say I have two goals!  After all, I am The Fantasy Man, I have a reputation to uphold!  So that is basically it..... win money and give experts a run for their money!  Now, lets get to it, shall we.....

Step 1 - The Research
I am not sure about anyone else, but I started my research back in September while the 2006 season was coming to an end but it was not until the beginning of November when I truly got serious for 2007.   So how do I research? Inquiring minds want to know.  I simply scour online newspapers to get an idea on the injury status of certain players, want kind of health we can expect by Spring Training, free agent status, trade rumors, etc.  While I am doing that, I am taking a look at September standouts like Matt Cain, Kaz Matsui, and Rich Hill and 2nd half heroes like Mark Teixiera, Aramis Ramirez, Chris Duffy, etc. I look for trends in stats, I look at age, I look at team competition at the position and I try to determine who was for real and who was not.  I do not think I have to explain how good Cain and Hill were late last season and its showing in the drafts now.  If you had no clue Rich Hill was stellar in August and September, you could really be at a disadvantage in drafts and auctions this season, just to use Hill as an example.

In December, I scour the internet to participate in  mock drafts and search for early expert drafts to get an idea what the very few people who are thinking about fantasy baseball at this point are thinking.   Then in the middle of January, I grab that first fantasy magazine and I compare the expert drafts in the magazines to the mock drafts that I participate in.  I also find a few leagues to join who are starting up early and do slow online drafts and auctions and such.  Its great research for any manager.  At this point I will start to rank players and designate prices and values for players based on a $260 budget.  I like to look at the players individually, look at their numbers and stats, look at trends, age, upside potential, and then make an educated guess as to their projected stats.  Its tedious, but keep a fantasy magazine by you at all times instead of the newspaper or anything else. Know the players, know their stats, and get an idea as to where to draft them and how much!  If you do not know that Randy Johnson is no longer a first round draft pick, you need to start doing some homework, because that is unacceptable!

Step 2 - The Reconnaissance
Research is the main key, so know your stuff!  I just cannot seem to wait until one week or the night before the draft.  I love baseball too much and I am looking to get better year after year. Its a process but this stuff just comes natural to me.  Anyway, step 2 is reconnaissance!  This is the part that separates the men from the boys when it comes to fantasy baseball.   

First, if I am joining a new league that is doing a full draft, I am always looking to start up some chatter over email, instant message or a leagues forum to get an idea as to what the managers are all about.  I want to know who is a baseball nut, who is there for the fun or to make friends, and who is full of crapola!  I ask about favorite teams, players, expectations going into the season and I will also try to squeeze out some of their strategies.  Of course, I write it all down.  That is the key! Then, I exploit my findings at the draft or auction.

In keeper leagues, especially if I am new to the league, I investigate teams.  I make believe I am the owner of each team and I have to pick my keepers. This will give me a good idea as to who might be available at the draft.  This goes a long way when it comes to having to decide which keepers I will personally keep. I also go through all of the old posts from last season which are most likely still on the league pages to see who is most likely to make a deal, who does all the complaining and vetoing, and who does not bother to remain active.  Last years message board is a great resource that not many people take advantage of!

Step 3 - The Draft
Now its time to see if all the hard work has paid off.  The main objective here is to stick to your plan! Make sure you know what positions you need, what categories are counted, how many active players, how many bench, minor leaguers, budgets, etc.  Know the rules of your league inside and out! 

As for me, this season, no matter what type of snake draft, outside of my stud first rounder, I am looking for younger players with upside who can contribute in multiple categories while keeping an eye on drafting to fill my categories.  I am looking to acquire  2-3 top "average" players in the first five rounds.  For eample, if I take Soriano in the first round, I want to follow my next two hitter picks with guys who can hit for high averages (.320+ potential) like Jeter, Tejada, Suzuki, Atkins, Cano, etc.  I am also looking for a stud top-notch pitcher in rounds 4 or 5 depending on how the draft plays out.  When I say top-notch, after Santana who should be gone in the first round, I mean Carpenter, Halladay, Zambrano, Peavy, Oswalt and maybe Webb.  I will then be looking for a top-notch closer sometime in rounds 6 - 8 and maybe take another by round 10 if pickings are slim.

I am also not waiting on pitching.  Anyone who says "pitching is deep" and waits until the late rounds to snag pitchers is shorting themselves.  You need at least one stud to anchor your staff.  Usually, once I grab that first closer, I start alternating pitchers and hitters for a few picks. Since you usually need less pitchers than hitters, you can get some nice middle tier pitchers and have your active staff almost completely filled with solid, high upside pitchers.  What this does is give me solid players across the board and not just one or two top pitchers and seven or eight risky and average pitchers.  So this way, I am getting a top-notch pitcher, at least one solid closer, and six or seven solid middle tier pitcher with solid upside and break out potential, guys like Brett Myers, Dontrelle Willis, Barry Zito, Matt Cain, Jered Weaver, Chris R. Young, Rich Hill, etc.

For auctions, I might spend big on one or two players because I know who will be bargains towards the end of the auction since I have already done my research in Step 1.  I am constantly looking for younger players who contribute in multiple categories, and that means speed.  Just about every hitter I take, with the exception of maybe one or two, will have at least 5-10+ stolen base potential.  Either way, the key is to know your values and what prices players are normally going for in like leagues.  I know for sure that in most leagues I can get an Edwin Encarnacion for under $10 in a $260 league, Lyle Overbay for under $10, Ronnie Paulino, Gerald Laird, Paul Lo Duca for $1 - $3, Mike Mussina for around $8, Mike Cameron for $2, Nick Markakis for under $8 or Chuck James for $5 and Chad Billingsley for $2.  Knowing what prices the young studs with upside go for or the older established veterans go for, I can almost predict how much I can spend on the higher priced studs!  Plus, I have already assigned values to the players I plan on bidding on in Step 1, so as long as I stick to them, if I get players at a cheaper price, that gives me more money to spend on the studs.  I also know that two decent solid closers will cost me approximately $30 give or take a few bucks.  Usually closer go for the $12 - $18 range for decent solid closers like Huston Street, Bobby Jenks, Chad Cordero, Trevor Hoffman, Chris Ray, etc.  Elite closers like Mariano Rivera, K-Rod, Joe Nathan and B.J. Ryan will go for $18 - $25.  Know this upfront, and you can realistically plan out an entirely balanced team for the auction.  

So spend wisely, do not get into bidding wars and stick to your stopping point on players.  Have your values planned out ahead of time and stick to them.  Now, this is where the reconnaissance comes in from Step 2.  Know who the other managers love.  For example, if you find out that a manager lives within walking distance of Shea Stadium, chances are, he'll start cross dressing just for a chance to meet David Wright or Jose Reyes which means he'll spend mucho buckos to get these guys on his team. So in this case, since you know this guy is head over heels for a player, when its your turn, you throw that player out in the auction, then bid him up like you really want to buy him.  Then, you see the other owner really wants this player too (but you knew that already), so you get into a bidding war. You'll have to determine for yourself when is the right time to stop but if you know he is going one more dollar and both of you are already $10 over the market price, bail out!.....and you will stick this guy with a $50 David Wright!  That is how you take advantage of the recon factor!  Get all that money off the table and take that manager out of the game for a while.  Make people spend their money!

Step 4 - The Season - Team Management
My main goal once the season starts is to stay active and stay on top of my teams like flies on crap! Hoard the waiver wire and be the first to pick up players and fill holes.  The best time to snatch someone up is game time between 8pm and 12pm every night during the week.  Now for me, that is best because I am in Eastern Standard Time.  It may be different for people in different time zones.  Also, Saturdays and Sundays during the games is a good time too. Most people are not on their computers during a nice weekend afternoon.  If you are watching a game and get an inside tip or see a player perform well that can fill a need on your team, you will be at an advantage at that point. If you wait until Sunday morning or Sunday night, you'll be out of luck!

When it comes to making deals, do not worry about making deal right away. Let your team smooth itself out, unless you drastically need to fill a hole.  if your team is mostly healthy, I like to wait until mid-May to start thinking about trading.  Please just remember one thing, and this is difficult, but do not trade just to trade!  I cannot stress that enough.  Sometimes you will get an offer and your so addicted to trading that you trade away future stars without even realizing it.  This season, I plan on keeping my young players while drafting the right established players for a championship.  This way, I will not have to trade away my young keeper studs for the high priced established players for a championship in keeper leagues.  Its hard to do, but the right research will help me and you get it done!

Step 5 - The Evaluation
Early - mid May is the best time to sit down and take a closer look at your team.  No need just yet to make any big moves unless you are desperate to fill a hole, but just get an idea as to who is continuing to under-perform and get them on your radar.  Also, keep an eye on players who are over-achieving who should not be like a Gary Matthews Jr. last season and be prepared to sell them high.

Step 6 - The Reconnaissance Part 2
At the end of May, you are now ready to strike, you need to fill the holes of the under-performing players and you see upside and potential of some players on the other managers' teams.  Start contacting everyone and get the chatter going again.  Send out some bogus trade offers.  See what the market bares just in case a good deal comes your way.  Put your players on the block that you would not mind getting rid of only, see if you can generate interest with them first.  If you are already in first or second, you might want to stand pat for a bit and see how things shape up and the re-evaluate by the middle-end of June.  If you are losing ground, it might be time to sell off some cheaply priced exciting young players for those established first round type stud.  Keep in mind that most rookies and young players in the league in their first full season normally tire late in the season as did Scott Kazmir, Jeremy Sowers, and Mike Napoli last season.  Be smart!  Do not trade just to make a trade.  

Also, starting May, you should be keeping an eye on the Minor Leagues.  Scour the minor league teams and see who is performing well and who might get a call up.  Keeping tabs on the minor leagues could do wonders for your team to help fill holes or stash away young players as keeper for trade bait or for next season.  Remember who was being touted all winter, and if they are on the waiver wire in late may, early June, check out their stats up to that point.  If looking stellar, Grab & Stash them!

Step 7 - The Last Step (a 4-parter)
A. Consider all trade offers up until the trade deadline!
B. June is waiver wire heaven!  Injuries and slow starts pave the way for young players and call ups to get a chance. Know what minor leaguers have a shot to fill real major league team holes.  Be ready to strike on the waiver wire and stash those players away.
C. As it gets closer to August, it could be smarter to stash some solid veteran pitchers who are potentially in a pennant race like Greg Maddux, David Wells, Tom Glavine, etc.  These guys usually excel late in the season as they did last year and are useful as some young pitchers will tire out or the league gets two or three good looks at a pitcher during the course of a season. The established veterans who have been pitching for 15 years, know how to pitch to players who "have their number" and are usually more effective.  I am not saying to bench a Matt Cain, Jered Weaver or Rich Hill from 2006, but I am saying that you can compliment these guy with solid performances from established players who are playing for a division title or a contract.
D. Lastly, make sure you are keeping up with your team. At least once a day to check up on things is good enough.  get rid of the dead wait and add that young blood!  make sure trade offers are attended too.

Step 8 - The Truth
This is truly the most important Step.  Remember, Fantasy Baseball is supposed to be fun!  Do not ruin leagues, friendships, or quit your jobs because of stupidity and wreck less team and league management.  If you make a mistake, bring it up with league mates and come to an agreement together on how to handle it.  We do not need to send each other 300 emails a day and "reply all" so that everyone "not " involved is still in the loop!  That is just ridiculous!   So have fun and remember, its just a game, even though money is on the line, its not the end of the world. If you cannot have fun playing fantasy baseball, what can you have fun doing?

Be Smart!  Have Fun! Keep The Fantasy Man in the Loop!

Good Luck this season!

Mike Kuchera
The Fantasy Man
Fantasy Baseball Express
www.fantasybaseballexpress.com
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Member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association